Economic Update

Weekly Mortgage News

Positive economic news and hints that the Fed may be close to winding down their aggressive bond-buying program are pushing mortgage rates higher.

Economic Recap from Last Week:

Consumer Confidence hit a 5-year high last week, showing that rising home values may be giving consumers reason to feel more optimistic.

Last week’s Case Shiller Home Price Index rose almost 11% from a year ago. This represents the strongest annual gain in that report on seven years.

Bottom Line for Mortgages:

Mortgage rates have moved up in the wake of strong economic news. However, rates remain historically low, making it an ideal time to buy a home. 

The Week Ahead:

Wednesday: 
ADP National Employment report for May. This report is usually an early indicator of where Friday’s all-important Non-Farm Payrolls report from the Dept. of Labor will come in at. 

Thursday:
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims. Last week’s jumped to 354-thousand, and most analysts expect this week’s to be in the 345-thousand range.

Friday:
Non-Farm Payrolls report from the Dept. of Labor. April’s report came in above expectations at 165-thousand new jobs created. The forecast for May is around 160-thousand. Any deviation from that figure could have a significant impact on markets.

Remember: Good economic news tends to favor stocks at the expense of bonds (to which mortgage rates are tied.) Positive economic reports push mortgage rates higher as the bond market adjusts prices. 

Bad news tends to drive investors out of stocks and into bonds, which tends to drive mortgage rates lower.

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